Whether There's Weather
Chaos Theory is an idea that most people are at least somewhat familiar with. This is the theory where, if a butterfly flaps it's wings somewhere in China, it could effect the weather in Los Angeles. This idea seems intriguing, most people follow it, the butterfly's wings create a small whiff of air that interferes with a larger current of air, which affects a larger breeze, which keeps propagating up until it effects whether or not it rains in Los Angeles on a certain day.
I've been reading a book, Chaos: Making a New Science, an old book from the late eighties, and although now it is dated, it does offer a more complete picture of chaos theory than what I had assumed. The most interesting revelation I had was the discovery that if a butterfly flaps its wings somewhere in China, it WILL affect the weather in Los Angeles.
The theory goes like this. Let's say we make an exact copy of planet Earth with every air particle in the exact same place. Now let's say that a butterfly flaps its wings on Earth #1, but not on Earth #2. So now on Earth #1 a group of air particles has been displaced, and let's say that this is the only initial difference between these two Earths.
The key concept here is that from this moment onward, if we compare the positions of each air particle on the two Earth's, they will never be exactly the same. The result of the displaced particles never gets "drowned out". Instead, their area of effect only widens as they interfere with neighboring air particles. Even the slightest, smallest change in particle position will eventually manifest itself on a greater scale by influencing the complex behavior of local turbulences. This will create a difference in local air flow that will compound with time. These differences will in turn effect larger air currents which will translate to even greater differences in the air particle positions of the two Earths.
Inevitably, the differences will affect weather patterns on larger and larger scales until, given enough time, the overall global picture of low and high pressures, jet stream locations and developing hurricanes, tornadoes, etc will look completely different for the two Earths. This isn't a maybe, if a butterfly flaps its wings on one Earth and not on the other, the two Earths will eventually have irreconcilable global weather.
Here's another way to look at it. Meteorologists use temperature, pressure, humidity and air speed data from across the country to predict weather for the next few days using weather modeling computer programs. They are able to predict the weather more reliably for a greater number of days if they have temperature and pressure data points every square mile than if they have data points for every ten square miles.
But lets say they have data points at every square foot across the planet. They might be able to predict the weather a few weeks or a month out. However, over time tiny eddies within each square foot that don't appear in the data set manifest themselves in greater and greater ways until finally the overall weather pattern is unpredictable a certatin number of days later. This analogy works for square inches, and on downwards.
I've been reading a book, Chaos: Making a New Science, an old book from the late eighties, and although now it is dated, it does offer a more complete picture of chaos theory than what I had assumed. The most interesting revelation I had was the discovery that if a butterfly flaps its wings somewhere in China, it WILL affect the weather in Los Angeles.
The theory goes like this. Let's say we make an exact copy of planet Earth with every air particle in the exact same place. Now let's say that a butterfly flaps its wings on Earth #1, but not on Earth #2. So now on Earth #1 a group of air particles has been displaced, and let's say that this is the only initial difference between these two Earths.
The key concept here is that from this moment onward, if we compare the positions of each air particle on the two Earth's, they will never be exactly the same. The result of the displaced particles never gets "drowned out". Instead, their area of effect only widens as they interfere with neighboring air particles. Even the slightest, smallest change in particle position will eventually manifest itself on a greater scale by influencing the complex behavior of local turbulences. This will create a difference in local air flow that will compound with time. These differences will in turn effect larger air currents which will translate to even greater differences in the air particle positions of the two Earths.
Inevitably, the differences will affect weather patterns on larger and larger scales until, given enough time, the overall global picture of low and high pressures, jet stream locations and developing hurricanes, tornadoes, etc will look completely different for the two Earths. This isn't a maybe, if a butterfly flaps its wings on one Earth and not on the other, the two Earths will eventually have irreconcilable global weather.
Here's another way to look at it. Meteorologists use temperature, pressure, humidity and air speed data from across the country to predict weather for the next few days using weather modeling computer programs. They are able to predict the weather more reliably for a greater number of days if they have temperature and pressure data points every square mile than if they have data points for every ten square miles.
But lets say they have data points at every square foot across the planet. They might be able to predict the weather a few weeks or a month out. However, over time tiny eddies within each square foot that don't appear in the data set manifest themselves in greater and greater ways until finally the overall weather pattern is unpredictable a certatin number of days later. This analogy works for square inches, and on downwards.
posted by flowbeus at 8:20 PM
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